James Callaghan came to power in 1976. He was immediately told the economy was facing huge problems, according to documents released in 2006 by the National Archives. The effects of the 1973 oil crisis were still being felt, with inflation rising to over 27% in 1975. Financial markets were beginning to believe the pound was overvalued and in April of that year The Wall Street Journal advised the sale of sterling investments in a story titled "Good-bye Great Britain". At the time the UK government was running a budget deficit and Labour's strategy emphasised high public spending. Callaghan was told there were three possible outcomes: a disastrous free fall in Sterling, an internationally unacceptable siege economy or a deal with key allies to prop up the pound while painful economic reforms were put in place. The US government feared the crisis could endanger NATO and the EEC and in light of this the US Treasury set out to force domestic policy changes. In November 1976 the IMF announced the conditions for a loan included deep cuts in public expenditure.

1979–1989

The Conservatives arrived in power in 1979, on a programme of fiscal austerity. Initially, the pound rocketed, moving above the $2.40 level, as interest rates rose in response to themonetarist policy of targeting money supply. The high exchange rate was widely blamed for the deep recession of 1981. Sterling fell sharply after 1980; at its lowest, the pound stood at just $1.03 in March 1985, before returning to the US$1.70 level in December 1989.

Following the Deutsche Mark

In 1988, Margaret Thatcher's Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson decided that the pound should "shadow" the West German Deutsche Mark, with the unintended result of a rapid rise in inflation as the economy boomed due to inappropriately low interest rates. (For ideological reasons, the Conservative Government declined to use alternative mechanisms to control the explosion of credit. For this reason, former Prime Minister Edward Heath referred to Lawson as a "one club golfer").

Following German re-unification in 1989, the reverse held true, as high borrowing costs to fund Eastern reconstruction, a need exacerbated by the political choice to make the ostmark equivalent to the deutschemark, meant rates in other countries shadowing the DM, especially the UK, were far too high relative to domestic circumstances, leading to a housing decline and recession.

Following the European Currency Unit

On 8 October 1990 the Conservative government decided to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), with the pound set at DM2.95. However, the country was forced to withdraw from the system on “Black Wednesday” (16 September 1992) as Britain’s economic performance made the exchange rate unsustainable. Speculator George Soros famously made approximately US$1 billion from shorting the pound.

'Black Wednesday' saw interest rates jump from 10% to 15% in an unsuccessful attempt to stop the pound from falling below the ERM limits. The exchange rate fell to DM2.20. Proponents of a lower GBP/DM exchange rate were vindicated as the cheaper pound encouraged exports and contributed to the economic prosperity of the 1990s.

Following inflation targets

In 1997, the newly elected Labour government handed over day-to-day control of interest rates to the Bank of England (a policy that had originally been advocated by the Liberal Democrats. The Bank is now responsible for setting its base rate of interest so as to keep inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) very close to 2%. Should CPI inflation be more than one percentage point above or below the target, the governor of the Bank of England is required to write an open letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining the reasons for this and the measures which will be taken to bring this measure of inflation back in line with the 2% target. On 17 April 2007, CPI inflation was reported at 3.1% (inflation of the Retail Prices Index was 4.8%). Accordingly, and for the first time, the Governor had to write publicly to the government explaining why inflation was more than one percentage point higher than its target.

Euro

As a member of the European Union, the United Kingdom could adopt the euro as its currency. However, the subject remains politically controversial. Gordon Brown, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, ruled out membership for the foreseeable future, saying that the decision not to join had been right for Britain and for Europe.

The government of former Prime Minister Tony Blair had pledged to hold a public referendum to decide on membership should "five economic tests" be met, to ensure that adoption of the euro would be in the national interest. In addition to these internal (national) criteria, the UK would have to meet the EU's economic convergence criteria (Maastricht criteria), before being allowed to adopt the euro. The Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition ruled out joining the euro for the parliamentary term. Currently, the UK's annual government deficit, as a percentage of the GDP, is above the defined threshold. In February 2005, 55% of British citizens were against adopting the currency, with 30% in favour. The idea of replacing the pound with the euro has been controversial with the British public, partly because of the pound's identity as a symbol of British sovereignty and because it would, according to critics, lead to suboptimal interest rates, harming the British economy. In December 2008 the results of a BBC poll of 1000 people suggested that 71% would vote no, 23% would vote yes to joining the European single currency, while 6% said they were unsure. The pound did not join the Second European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) after the euro was created. Denmark and the UK have opt-outs from entry to the euro. Technically, every other EU nation must eventually sign up.

The Scottish Conservative Party claims that there is an issue for Scotland in that the adoption of the euro would mean the end of regionally distinctive banknotes, as the euro banknotes do not have national designs. The Scottish National Party claims an independent Scotland would have nationally distinctive coins, and its party policy includes entry into the single currency.

On 1 January 2008 the British sovereign bases on Cyprus (Akrotiri and Dhekelia) began using the euro (along with the rest of the Republic of Cyprus).

Current exchange value

The pound and euro fluctuate in value against one another, although there may be correlation between movements in their respective exchange rates with other currencies such as the US dollar. Inflation concerns in the UK led the Bank of England to raise interest rates in late 2006 and 2007. This caused the pound to appreciate against other major currencies, and with the US dollar depreciating at the same time, the pound hit a 15-year high against the US dollar on 18 April 2007, having reached US$2 for the first time since 1992 the day before. The pound and many other currencies continued to appreciate against the dollar, and sterling hit a 26-year high of US$2.1161 on 7 November 2007 as the dollar fell worldwide. From mid-2003 to mid 2007, the pound/euro rate remained rangebound (within ± 5%) of €1.45. However, following the global financial crisis in late 2008, the pound has since depreciated at one of the fastest rates in history, reaching a 24-year low of $1.35 per £1 on 23 January 2009 and falling below €1.25 against the euro in April 2008. A further decline was seen during the remainder of 2008; most dramatically in December when its euro rate hit an all-time low at €1.0219 (29th), while its US dollar rate depreciated to $1.37 on 24 January 2009. The pound appreciated in early 2009 reaching a peak against the euro in mid-July of €1.17. The following months the pound remained broadly steady against the euro, with the pound's current (16 February 2011) value at €1.19 and US$1.61.

On 5 March 2009, the Bank of England announced that they would pump £75 billion of new capital into the British economy, through a process known as quantitative easing. This is the first time in the United Kingdom's history that this measure has been used, although the Bank's Governor Mervyn King suggested it was not an experiment.

The process sees the Bank of England creating new money for itself, which it then uses to purchase assets such as government bonds, bank loans, or mortgages. The initial amount stated to be created through this method was £75 billion, although Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling had given permission for up to £150 billion to be created if necessary. It is thought the process is likely to occur over a period of three months with results only likely in the long term. By 5 November 2009, some £175 billion had been injected using quantitative easing and the effectiveness of the process remains questionable.

The Bank of England has stated that the decision has been taken to prevent the rate of inflation falling below the two percent target rate. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, also suggested there were no other monetary options left as interest rates have already been cut to their lowest level ever of 0.5% and it was unlikely they would be cut further.